*** OPEN LOG/OUTPUT FILE ***

log using "C:\Users\gk57526\Dropbox\Executive Particularism (Matt Zarit)\Contract Duration\May 2020\Output Files\Selling_Out.SINGLE OPEN BID MODELS.06-01-2021.smcl", replace


**** ACCESS DATABASE ***

use "C:\Users\gk57526\Dropbox\Executive Particularism (Matt Zarit)\Contract Duration\May 2020\zarit_contractingdata_duration.FAR threshold.05-29-2021.GAK.dta", replace






***** GENERATE BINARY INDICATORS FOR EACH TYPE OF CONTRACTUAL STRUCTURE: ONLY THOSE INVOLVING SINGLE BIDS [I.E., COMPETITIVELYBID==0] ****


* UNFAVORABLE CONTRACT STRUCTURE CASES FOR OPEN SINGLE BID CASES ONLY ***

gen m00open = 1 if tri_bid==1 & fixedfirmprice==0
*
replace m00open = 0 if m00open ==.
*
*




******* PLEASE NOTE, THIS ANALYSIS IS THE SAME AS THE MANUSCRIPT MODELS, EXCEPT ONLY ANALYZING "UNFAVORABLE/HIGH RISK" CONTRACT STRUCTURES FOR OPEN SINGLE BIDS [M00OPEN == 1] *********


******* PLEASE NOTE, COMPARE ONLY TO SINGLE CLOSED BID & VARIABLE COST CONTRACTS [HIGH GOVERNMENT RISK/UNFAVORABLE TO THE GOVERNMENT]


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*** PART II ANALYSES: CHOICE OF CONTRACT STRUCTURE [PROBIT REGRESSIONS ANALYZING VARIOUS COMBINATIONS OF CONTRACT STRUCTURES: SUPPLY & COST STRUCTURE COMBINATIONS]





***  LOW RISK CONTRACTUAL DESIGNS FROM U.S. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT'S PERSPECTIVE AS A "BUYER" **



** A4.1  FULLY BENEFICIAL TERMS FOR SELLER/CONTRACTOR  [N = 1,092,115] **
**       SINGLE BIDS [OPEN PROCESS] & VARIABLE COST CONTRACTS [COST PLUS, TIME & MATERIALS, & LABOR] **

probit m00open c.agency_packing##execlevel##pol_align  c.agency_packing##execlevel##pol_opposed  perc_prof  selin1_abszero  selin2_abszero unified lnannualrevenue_adj house_app house_ways house_majority  close_congelect_dist     dod dc_area goods_services lnvendorsum_adj lndollarsobligated_adj  pres_donor_pac lnpres_donor_pac_amount_adj   i.agency yearfe2 yearfe3 yearfe4 yearfe5 yearfe6 yearfe7 yearfe8 yearfe9 yearfe10 yearfe11 yearfe12 yearfe13 yearfe14 yearfe15 yearfe16   i.psc_id, vce(cluster agency)
*
estat ic
*


*** FIGURES A4.2 & A4.3 ***



*** A4.1.1 PRESIDENTIAL ALIGNED AGENCIES: EVALUATED AT 10TH PCTILE [LOW POLITICIZATION] & 90TH PCTILE [HIGH POLITICIZATION] VALUES OF WITHINAGENCY_PACKING ///
***     [N = 202,418] ***

* Compute within-agency & overall distribution of agency_packing 'moderator' covariate *
*
*
sum withinagency_packing if e(sample) & pol_align==1, detail
*
sum agency_packing if e(sample) & pol_align==1, detail
*
* 
** Compute Marginal Effects at Three Distinct Values of Within-Agency Distribution of agency_packing 'moderator': ///
** 10th Percentile (LOW)  & 90TH Percentile [HIGH]

* IDEOLOGICALLY ALIGNED AGENCIES: LOW APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION -- COMPARING NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [1 & 2] * 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1)
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1)  level(90)
*
* IDEOLOGICALLY ALIGNED AGENCIES: LOW APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION -- PREDICTED PROBABILITY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [3]* 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1) pwcompare
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1) pwcompare level(90)
*
*
*
* IDEOLOGICALLY ALIGNED AGENCIES: HIGH APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION -- COMPARING NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [4 & 5] * 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1) 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1)  level(90)
*
* IDEOLOGICALLY ALIGNED AGENCIES: HIGH APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION -- PREDICTED PROBABILITY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [6] * 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1) pwcompare
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1) pwcompare level(90)
*
*
*
* IDEOLOGICALLY ALIGNED AGENCIES: PREDICTED PROBABILITY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH & LOW APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION FOR BOTH NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [7 & 8] * 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1) contrast(atcontrast(r._at))
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_align==1) contrast(atcontrast(r._at)) level(90)
*



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*** A4.1.2 PRESIDENTIAL OPPOSED AGENCIES: EVALUATED AT 10TH PCTILE [LOW POLITICIZATION] & AND 90TH PCTILE [HIGH POLITICIZATION] VALUES OF WITHINAGENCY_PACKING ///
***     [N = 501,650] 

* Compute within-agency & overall distribution of agency_packing 'moderator' covariate *
sum withinagency_packing if e(sample) & pol_opposed==1, detail
sum agency_packing if e(sample) & pol_opposed==1, detail
*
 
 
** Compute Marginal Effects at Three Distinct Values of Within-Agency Distribution of agency_packing 'moderator': ///
** 10th Percentile (LOW) & 90TH Percentile [HIGH]


* IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED AGENCIES: LOW APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION -- COMPARING NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [9 & 10] * 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1) 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1)  level(90)
*
* IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED AGENCIES: LOW APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION -- PREDICTED PROBABILITY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [11]* 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1) pwcompare
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1) pwcompare level(90)
*
*
*
* IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED AGENCIES: HIGH APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION -- COMPARING NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [12 & 13] * 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1) 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1) level(90)
*
* IDEOLOGICALLY OPPPOSED AGENCIES: HIGH APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION -- PREDICTED PROBABILITY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [14] * 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1) pwcompare
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1) pwcompare level(90)
*
*
*
* IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED AGENCIES: PREDICTED PROBABILITY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH & LOW APPOINTEE POLITICIZATION FOR BOTH NON-EXECUTIVE & EXECUTIVE LEVEL CONTRACTING DECISIONS [15 & 16] * 
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1) contrast(atcontrast(r._at))
margins ,  at(agency_packing = (-0.0641362)) at(agency_packing = (0.014702)) over(execlevel) subpop(if pol_opposed==1) contrast(atcontrast(r._at)) level(90)
*
*



* FIGURE A4.4A [IDEOLOGICALLY ALIGNED AGENCIES] -- PLACEMENT OF ESTIMATES: 1  2  3      4  5  6     7  8
* FIGURE A4.4B [IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED AGENCIES] -- PLACEMENT OF ESTIMATES: 9 10 11     12 13 14    15 16

*** FOR FIGURES A4.5A & A4.5B -- CONVERT ESTIMATES 3, 6, 7, & 8 [IDEOLOGICALLY ALIGNED]  PLUS 11, 14, 15 & 16 [IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED] IN TERMS OF THE FOLLOWING: (A) PREDICTED NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AFFECTED AMONG LOW RISK CONTRACTS IN
*                                SAMPLE, (B) PREDICTED TOTAL MONETARY VALUE AFFECTED AMONG LOW RISK CONTRACTS IN SAMPLE, & (C) PREDICTED PROPORTION OF MONETARY VALUE AFFECTED AMONG LOW RISK CONTRACTS IN SAMPLE  

* FIGURE A4.5A [IDEOLOGICALLY ALIGNED AGENCIES] -- PLACEMENT OF ESTIMATES:  3(A-C)    6(A-C)          7(A-C)    8(A-C)
* FIGURE A4.5B [IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED AGENCIES] -- PLACEMENT OF ESTIMATES: 11(A-C)   14(A-C)         15(A-C)   16(A-C) 


*** A: PREDICTED NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AFFECTED: This is computed as marginal probability effect × number of multiple bid and fixed cost procurements in the regression sample, conditional on both a given president-agency ideological configuration [ALIGN/NEUTRAL/OPPOSED] and organizational level for procurement agreements [EXECUTIVE LEVEL/NON-EXECUTIVE LEVEL].

*
*

*** B: PREDICTED CONSTANT DOLLAR VALUE IMPACT: Predicated by Predicted Number of Multiple Bid and Fixed Cost Contracts Affected Relative to the total 2009 constant dollar value of these subset of observations in the regression sample [E.G., ALIGNED | EXECUTIVE LEVEL;  ALIGNED | NON-EXECUTIVE LEVEL; ETC....].

*
*

*** C: PREDICTED PROPORTIONAL CONSTANT DOLLAR VALUE IMPACT [i.e., B] RELATIVE TO SUM/TOTAL OF ALL SAMPLE CONTRACTS OF HIGH GOVERNMENT RISK: 



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log close
